Populist Parties Prevail in Norwegian Polls as Progress Party Reaches Record Highs and Prime Minister Støre Faces Slump

Key Points

• The right-wing Progress Party (Fremskrittspartiet, Frp), led by Sylvi Listhaug, has dominated the latest Norwegian public opinion polls, reaching 32.7 per cent in an Opinion survey for Dagsavisen and 33.99 per cent in a Respons poll for Aftenposten.
• The ruling Labour Party (Arbeiderpartiet, Ap), led by Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, trailed significantly in second place, securing 22.3 per cent in Opinion’s poll and 21 per cent in Respons’ poll.
• The Conservative Party (Høyre, H) suffered severe losses, slumping to third place with 14.4 per cent in the Respons poll and 12.8 per cent in the Opinion poll, having lost an estimated 103,000 voters to the Progress Party.
• In a Norfakta poll conducted for Klassekampen and Nationen, 53 per cent of Norwegian voters under the age of 30 indicated they would vote for the Progress Party.
• Smaller parties described as populist, including the far-left Reds (Rødt) led by Marie Sneve Martinussen, saw record support, with the Reds climbing to a historic 9.2 per cent in Opinion’s polling.
• Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre experienced a sharp drop in domestic approval, with a Norstat poll for NRK, Dagbladet, and Vårt Land showing only 35.2 per cent of voters believe he is doing a good job—down 6.5 percentage points from September.
• Voters appear increasingly focused on domestic cost-of-living issues, including elevated interest rates, energy prices, and fuel taxes, overshadowing Støre’s high-profile international diplomatic efforts in Oslo with foreign leaders.

Norway (Norway Post Magazine) October 23, 2026 – Norway’s political landscape has undergone a major upheaval as the parliamentary session opens, with public opinion polls showing voter support surging for opposition populist parties while cratering for both the ruling Labour government and the traditional Conservative opposition. Fresh polling data indicates that the right-wing Progress Party, led by Sylvi Listhaug, has taken a commanding lead nationwide, pulling far ahead of Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre’s Labour Party and leaving the Conservative Party in a distant third place. Driven by widespread public anxiety over rising interest rates, elevated energy bills, and living costs, voters are turning away from mainstream government figures despite high-profile international diplomatic initiatives hosted in the capital.

How High Has the Progress Party Risen in Recent Public Opinion Polls?

The latest public opinion surveys reveal an unprecedented shift toward the Progress Party, marking some of the highest figures in its history. As reported by journalist Nina Berglund of NewsInEnglish.no, a survey conducted by research firm Opinion for the newspaper Dagsavisen placed voter preference for the Progress Party at 32.7 per cent. Simultaneously, a poll conducted by research firm Respons for Norway’s largest daily newspaper, Aftenposten, showed Progress reaching 33.99 per cent.

These figures position Progress well clear of the governing Labour Party, which polled at 22.3 per cent in Opinion’s survey and 21 per cent in Respons’ tracking. The Conservative Party, led by Erna Solberg, suffered a dramatic decline, recording just 14.4 per cent in the Respons poll and falling to 12.8 per cent in Opinion’s poll. Polling analysts estimate that the Progress Party has absorbed approximately 103,000 voters directly from the Conservatives, fundamentally reshaping the non-socialist bloc.

Youth support for Listhaug’s party has seen a parallel surge. As reported by NewsInEnglish.no, a survey conducted by research firm Norfakta for the newspapers Klassekampen and Nationen revealed that 53 per cent of Norwegian voters under the age of 30 would cast their ballots for the Progress Party.

Is Sylvi Listhaug Preparing to Claim the Prime Minister’s Office?

Despite the Progress Party’s dominant position in the polls, questions remain regarding its governing strategy and leadership ambitions. Progress Party leader Sylvi Listhaug has consistently stated that the leader of whichever party emerges as the largest following a parliamentary election should assume the prime minister’s post, though she has stopped short of formally declaring her individual candidacy.

Listhaug’s political approach continues to spark debate among analysts. As highlighted by Kjetil B. Alstadheim, political editor at Aftenposten, in a recent commentary titled “She lacks a plan for power,” commentators continue to question whether Listhaug actively seeks the administrative burden of prime ministerial office or the policy compromises required to maintain a stable coalition government.

Her recent parliamentary maneuvering underscored these coalition dynamics. Listhaug recently established an alliance with the Christian Democrats (KrF) and the Center Party (Sp) in an attempt to retain fuel tax cuts. However, lacking a majority without the Conservative Party, Listhaug opted to widen the rift with Høyre rather than seek a compromise across the broader non-socialist spectrum alongside the Liberal Party (Venstre).

How Are Smaller “Populist” Parties Performing Across the Political Spectrum?

The surge in voter dissatisfaction with traditional governing parties has extended beyond the right wing, benefiting smaller parties that challenge the established political order. The far-left Reds (Rødt), led by Marie Sneve Martinussen, achieved a record-high 9.2 per cent in Opinion’s poll for Dagsavisen—a result that makes the party roughly double the size of several established parliamentary groups, including the Liberals, the Christian Democrats, the Greens (MDG), and the Socialist Left (SV).

Speaking to Dagsavisen, Maria Rosness of research firm Opinion noted that the Progress Party, the Center Party, and the Reds all utilize “populist rhetoric” that contrasts the general population with state authority or an established “elite,” while promising to alleviate living costs for average citizens.

In response to the poll findings, Reds leader Marie Sneve Martinussen defended her party’s approach, telling Dagsavisen: “If populism means listening to people and taking their concerns seriously, and using our strengths to stand up against an undemocratic elite, then I take it as a compliment”. She described the party’s 9.2 per cent poll standing as “legendary”. Meanwhile, Center Party leader Trygve Slagsvold Vedum, whose party polled between 4 and 5 per cent, rejected the “populist” label, stating to media outlets that he is “mostly concerned about the people” and their immediate economic pressures.

Why Has Domestic Approval Collapsed for Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre?

The political realignment has dealt a sharp blow to Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and the Labour Party. A national opinion poll conducted by research firm Norstat for public broadcaster NRK alongside newspapers Dagbladet and Vårt Land revealed that only 35.2 per cent of Norwegian voters believe Støre is doing a good job in office. This represents a 6.5 percentage point drop from Norstat’s September survey, when his approval rating stood at 41.7 per cent.

Media analyses indicate a clear divergence between Støre’s international profile and domestic voter sentiment. While the Prime Minister has won praise abroad for his diplomatic role—recently hosting Finnish President Alexander Stubb, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff in Oslo for high-level security talks regarding the war in Ukraine—domestic voters remain focused on household finances. As reported by NRK, Støre “is paying the price for higher interest rates” alongside sustained high costs for electricity, fuel, and consumer goods.

What is the Background of This Particular Development?

Norway’s political landscape has historically been anchored by two dominant establishment forces: the social-democratic Labour Party on the left and the conservative Høyre on the right. For decades, executive power transferred primarily between these two political pillars, with smaller coalition partners filling cabinet posts. However, structural shifts in voter alignment have gathered momentum since the 2021 parliamentary elections, accelerated by global economic shocks, post-pandemic inflation, and energy market volatility across Western Europe.

The Progress Party, founded in 1973 on anti-tax and anti-bureaucracy platforms, previously served as a junior coalition partner in Erna Solberg’s Conservative-led government from 2013 until its voluntary exit in early 2020 over a dispute regarding the repatriation of a woman linked to ISIS. Since Sylvi Listhaug assumed the leadership in 2021, the party has positioned itself as an unyielding critic of energy taxes, green regulation, foreign aid spending, and immigration policies, while heavily faulting the current Labour-Center minority administration for household economic pressure. Concurrently, rising interest rates enacted by Norges Bank to tame inflation have severely impacted Norwegian households, driving voters away from incumbent parties toward anti-establishment alternatives across both sides of the spectrum.

How This Development Will Affect Norwegian Governance and Foreign Policy?

The sustained realignment of voter preferences toward populist and insurgent political parties is expected to generate significant consequences for Norway’s political ecosystem ahead of future parliamentary contests:

• Increased Instability in Parliamentary Lawmaking: As the minority Labour-Center government sees its approval metrics contract, passing annual state budgets and energy legislation will become increasingly complex. The government will be forced to make significant fiscal concessions to either the Reds, the Socialist Left, or right-leaning opposition parties to secure legislative majorities.
• Pressure on Energy and Tax Policies: The rapid rise of the Progress Party will put pressure on mainstream parties to roll back fuel taxes, modify environmental levies, and implement direct electricity subsidies to appease an electorate increasingly sensitive to energy costs.
• Challenges to Non-Socialist Coalition Building: While the Progress Party commands a dominant share of the right-leaning vote, deep policy divisions with the Conservative Party, the Liberal Party, and the Christian Democrats over fuel taxes, climate mandates, and public spending will complicate efforts to form a unified non-socialist government bloc.
• Potential Friction in Foreign Policy Spending: Although Norway maintains a strong cross-party consensus on defense spending and foreign aid—including assistance to Ukraine—a stronger populist presence in Parliament could lead to heightened scrutiny regarding international expenditure versus domestic cost-of-living relief.