Whether it’s Trump or Biden, old patterns still drive US-Philippines ties, say analysts

MANILA: On Sep 13, Joseph Scott Pemberton left the Philippines a free man, having served less than six years of a 10-year prison term for homicide. In 2014, he killed Jennifer Laude, a transgender woman he met in a nightclub, while Pemberton was in the Philippines for a joint military exercise.

Pemberton's release came after President Rodrigo Duterte pardoned the US Marine, a decision that sparked outrage and reopened wounds of the United States' colonial past in the Southeast Asian country.

Advertisement

Advertisement

"American soldiers seem to have done nothing for the Philippines … They have impregnated women but not done anything," said Eulogio Dumapyas, a job applicant CNA spoke to in Manila.

But some view the US military in a more positive light.

"There’s no ill intent. The US only wants to help the Philippines," said Alfredo Zaganzay, a recently laid-off construction worker.

US Marine Joseph Scott Pemberton, who was convicted of killing Jennifer Laude, inside a van with escorts from the Philippine government on their way to the airport for his deportation on Sep 13, 2020 in Manila (Photo: Bureau of Immigration, Philippines)

Advertisement

Advertisement

Pemberton’s case reignited calls to end a controversial military pact between the two countries. One of the main features of the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) is that it allows the US in most circumstances to retain jurisdiction over US military personnel accused of committing crimes in the Philippines.

In February, Mr Duterte said he would terminate the VFA. Four months later, he suspended that decision.

INSTITUTIONAL INERTIA

The controversy over the Pemberton case highlights the often fraught relationship between the US and the Philippines.

Advertisement

Analysts CNA spoke to believe that whoever wins the November election, the US will still view the Philippines as a useful partner.

"Trump knows that the Philippines is a strategic ally and it cannot afford to lose the Philippines against China," said Robin Michael Garcia, CEO & chief analyst at WR Numero Research.

The US-Philippines military alliance goes back almost 70 years, and this gives rise to institutional inertia, Mr Garcia said, which means there is a strong foundation for relations to ride on the back of.

Bob Herrera-Lim, managing director and analyst at consulting firm Teneo, agrees.

"We have deep institutional ties with the United States, whether you're talking military, trade, education,” Mr Herrera-Lim said. “So even though you have at the top this widening of the gap, there's still a strong bedrock to it which I think has become very evident."

Any disintegration in US-Philippines ties would be "gradual", and a new alliance would "take a significant amount of time," added Mr Herrera-Lim.

SOUTH CHINA SEA

On the thorny subject of the South China Sea, the Philippines remains the only treaty ally of the US that has a direct claim on territory in the disputed waters.

Analysts told CNA that regardless of the US election result, Washington will continue to court the Philippines because of its proximity to China and old patterns of cooperation with the US.

In an interview with CNA during his visit to Manila in 2019, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said: "China can't claim all of the water. They can't claim an ocean. That's not how international law works, and it's not good for the world.

"The United States is determined to ensure that these waterways remain open.”

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo speaks with CNA correspondent Buena Bernal in Manila on March 1, 2019.

PIVOT TO CHINA

While the occupant of the White House plays a role in determining US-Philippines ties, his counterpart in Manila’s Malacanang palace also has a big say.

Just last week, the Duterte administration lifted a ban on oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea, a move that could expedite talks with Beijing on a joint energy project.

Under Mr Duterte, Manila-Beijing ties have grown. But compared to the long-standing ties with the US, that relationship with China is still in its nascent stages.

“China is only learning how to be an international player, so it knows how to build top-level relationships. But building the lower relationships whether you are talking military, trade, education is much, much more difficult," Mr Herrera-Lim explained.

At the military level especially, Philippine commanders continue to see value in the alliance with Washington.

"The way the (Philippine) military has been trained is really American. So you have that at the domestic level. And we feel that the military personnel, especially at the mid-management level, if you will, will probably adhere to US-centred ideology, a US-centred idea," explained Mr Garcia.

"However you think of it, the Philippine military doesn't look too kindly on the Chinese territorial ambitions in the South ChinRead More – Source

[contf]
[contfnew]

channel news asia

[contfnewc]
[contfnewc]

Comments are closed.